2012-09 Barriers to Implementation of CCS: Capacity Constraints

Background

As part of its on-going work programme, the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG) has undertaken a number of studies to assess potential barriers to the implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). In the latest study in this series, the IEAGHG looks to explore whether there are supply and capacity constraints associated with equipment for CCS plants that might cause issues with CCS implementation. A related earlier study by the IEA Clean Coal Centre for new build coal fired power plant identified that there are potential areas of supply constraints in key components like castings for gas turbines and basic raw materials like steel and cement for plant construction. This study aims to build upon this earlier work by looking at the CCS components for new build plant to see if there are any additional critical component issues.

The IEA Technology Roadmap for CCS has been taken as the reference case for the study because it proposes an aggressive deployment strategy for CCS up to 2050[1]. This reference case, envisaged that 100 CCS projects need to be deployed by 2020 and suggested that by 2050 alone, up to 150Gt of CO₂ will need to have been captured and stored if CCS is to make the required contribution towards constraining temperate rise at 2⁰C by 2050. To achieve such targets CCS will be ramping up production rapidly (at the same time as other low carbon technologies) and issues may arise regarding materials/equipment and services supply that need to be identified early to ensure that these issues do not represent barriers to the implementation of CCS.

A contract for this study was awarded to Ecofys, B.V. of the Netherlands.

[1] The CCS Technology roadmap (IEA, 2011) builds on the IEA BLUE Map scenario in Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (IEA, 2010), which combines the deployment of different (low carbon) technologies to achieve global CO₂ emission reductions: from just below current 30 GtCO₂ to 14 GtCO₂ by 2050 (the baseline scenario results in 57 GtCO2). In the BLUE Map scenario CCS contribution to the emission reduction in 2050 – compared to the base line scenario - is 19 %.

Conclusions

The study has concluded that there are no insurmountable obstacles to the implementation of CCS at the rate of the IEA CCS roadmap were identified. However the scale of CCS implementation to match the IEA CCS roadmap would be large.

In the power sector the construction rate of power plants with CCS would be lower than historical power plant construction rates;

In the industry sector approximately 65% of current emissions would be captured by 2050 which is an optimistic target to achieve;

In the oil and gas sector more CO₂ would be captured annually than the current volume of annual global oil and gas production.

The most significant risk to rapid CCS deployment comes from competition with oil and gas exploration activities for experienced staff and drilling equipment.

The pre-combustion and oxy-fuel capture technologies contain elements that are not mature technology. The post combustion capture technology may become constrained by availability of materials.

Shortages of technically skilled personnel are most likely to appear, particularly for job profiles that are also required for oil and gas extraction; i.e. petroleum engineers and geo-scientists.

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