Publication Overview
This report provides analysis on the potential impacts that inclusion of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) as a clean development mechanism (CDM) project activity could have on the global carbon market. It has been undertaken in response to concerns raised about the possibility that CCS inclusion could result in the flooding of the carbon market with certified emission reduction (CERs) from CCS project activities, given the enormous scale of emission reductions potentially achievable.
Publication Summary
The research presents detailed estimates of emissions from natural gas processing in non-Annex I countries, coupled with detailed bottom-up cost estimates, which represents a new and important contribution to the debate on CCS inclusion as a CDM project activity. Furthermore, the detailed cost consideration of other early opportunity projects also represents a useful development. The assessment of potential carbon market effects also provides a new contribution to the current debate on the matter.
Analysis undertaken suggests that in 2012, CCS early opportunities could have technical potential to deploy around 1.24 GtCO2, comprising 219 MtCO2 in natural gas processing and 1020 MtCO2 in other sectors. However, market assessments undertaken suggest that no CCS would be deployed before 2012 at current estimates of CER supply and demand over the Kyoto Commitment period (estimated to be around 360 MCERs per year to 2012). The research suggests CCS would only become competitive with other CDM candidate options at the margin if supply (or demand) exceeds about 520 MCERs per year to 2012.
