This website will offer limited functionality in this browser. We only support the recent versions of major browsers like Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Edge.

Technology Collaboration Programme by IEA

CCS in Energy and Climate Scenarios

James Glynn, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Paul Deane, Myles Allen, Richard Millar, Niall Mac Dowell

Citation: IEAGHG, "CCS in Energy and Climate Scenarios ", 2019-05, July 2019.

Download The Full Publication Now

Publication Overview

The purpose of IAMs is to quantify the interactions and trade-offs between societal demands for energy, economic and environmental services, using a systems approach. These systems are typically the energy system, the economy, the earth-land system, the water system and atmospheric climate system, although every IAM does not necessarily include all these systems and have varying

Publication Summary

  • Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to quantify the interactions and trade-offs between societal demands for energy, economic, and environmental services, using a systems-based approach.
  • To stabilise global average temperatures, i.e. to end global warming, net CO2 emissions released to the atmosphere must be reduced to zero. CO2 emissions must be completely decoupled from economic growth.
  • The purpose of this study is to provide a transparent approach to understanding results from IAMs and, in particular, the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS). It is not the intention of the study to advocate particular scenarios.
  • CCS, with either fossil or bioenergy inputs, is a resilient climate mitigation technology.[1] It is deployed at sizeable scale in the vast majority of IAM scenarios that apply carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the global mean temperature increase to 2°C and pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.
  • Bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is deployed after fossil CCS, compensating for residual fossil CO2 emission through net negative CO2 BECCS, a negative emissions technology (NET), is one of a number of technologies designed to achieve carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Without NETs, permanent reduction in global temperatures following an overshoot would not be achievable. However, the extent of future BECCS deployment is uncertain due to concerns over the availability of sustainable biomass resource.
  • CCS capture costs of less than $100/tCO2 in the power generation sector and less than $400/tCO2 in industry are considerably lower than the whole system marginal abatement costs of CO2 by mid-century calculated in IAMS. In IAMs, therefore, there are limiting and competing constraints on CCS deployment that are not solely related to its cost.
  • 2°C scenarios have an upper limit on the cumulative CO2 emissions allowable (carbon budget) in the range of 800-1 400 GtCO2. The carbon budget for 1.5°C scenarios is in the range of 200-800 GtCO2. According to the models studied, CCS is deployed less in scenarios with more ambitious climate goals. This is, to a large extent, a result of the residual carbon emissions from fossil fuels with CCS.
  • Residual CO2 emissions from fossil CCS with 90% capture rates and fixed capacity factors become incompatible with strict carbon budgets. Importantly, a recent IEAGHG study[2] has concluded that the 90% capture rate cap is actually an artificial limit. It is an historical benchmark, originally chosen for illustrative purposes.[3] There are no technical barriers to increasing capture rates beyond 90% in the three classic capture routes (post-, pre- and oxyfuel combustion) or with the broad suite of CO2 capture technologies currently available or under development.
  • As well as capture rate and capacity factor, another direct assumption that influences the role of CCS in IAMs is investment costs for technologies. Figure 1 highlights the wide range of CCS capture costs by fuel type and technology type across power generation.
  • BECCS provides the majority of negative emissions in IAMs (with some CDR in the form of afforestation). It can provide additional space within the remaining carbon budget and may also compensate should global temperatures overshoot the target, but only as long as sufficient geological storage space remains under annual CO2 injection rate limits.
  • Actual CCS deployment to date is far removed from that depicted in the climate stabilisation pathways of most IAMs. There is a considerable gap between actual order books and the CCS deployment rates envisaged in most IAM scenarios to stabilise temperatures below 2°C.
  • Only models that regularly update their base-year calibration, such as the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model, can keep track of clean energy technology progress[4] and, accordingly, with the gap between actual CCS deployment and the required CCS deployment in temperature stabilisation scenarios.

The diversity of mathematical approaches across the range of IAM typologies gives insights into the resilience of climate policy options across a range of scenarios and sensitivity analyses when combined across a range of models in a model inter-comparison project (MIP). Where the same technology deployments occur with the same scale and timing across the range of scenario analysis, this gives an indication of a resilient technology option across the range of input assumptions and uncertain future scenarios. Resilience is meant here in the sense that the technology option is consistently deployed across a range of uncertain scenarios, with a range of techno-economic specifications, giving an indication of a least-regrets investment option and is not overtly sensitive to an individual scenario.

Download Publication

Access the complete publication in PDF format.

Download Now

Related Publications

View similar publications.

View All Publications
Technical Review

Insurance Coverage for CO₂ Storage Projects

  • 16 August 2024
  • Industry Insights
  • Storage

This report is a focused review of recent developments regarding insurance coverage for carbon dioxide (CO₂) geological storage projects. It seeks to address the following: what companies are offering or planning to offer insurance to CO₂ storage projects, what is the scope and duration of the coverage offered, and does coverage extend to the transportation of CO₂ to the project site? This work and report was prepared by Franz Hiebert.

Technical Report

The Role of Indices in Assessing the Maturity of CCUS Technologies and their Readiness for Deployment

  • 1 February 2024
  • Industry Insights

This study was undertaken on behalf of IEAGHG by Foresight Transitions Ltd. While a technology may be technically mature, it has become increasingly clear that the technology may not necessarily be considered commercially ‘bankable’ by investors. In this study, the potential for an index or indices to provide that confidence was explored. The findings from the study will be of interest to the broader energy community but, in particular, should benefit technology developers, CCUS end users, investors and policymakers.

Technical Report

Methologies and Technologies for Mitigation

  • 1 December 2023
  • Industry Insights

The driver behind this study is to develop a report built on the on the previous IEAGHG report on methods of leakage mitigation (2007/11). The proposed study should focus on current mitigation and remediation methods that may be applied or considered in site specific conditions in the event of unpredicted CO₂ migration. Each geological storage site will have an adaptive site specific monitoring plan, based on a risk assessment. Detection of a significant irregularity may involve supplementing the monitoring program, in order to detect a possible leak and if necessary engaging mitigation measures.

Technical Review

A bibliometric analysis of GHGT abstract submissions

  • 14 June 2023
  • Industry Insights

This technical review provides an insight into how the focus of research in the field of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) has evolved across a decade, from 2012–2022. It is designed to help understand where the most research has been conducted, and to see where CCUS research is going.

Technical Report

Review of Constructability and Operational Challenges faced by CCUS projects

  • 9 September 2020
  • Industry Insights

IEAGHG has commissioned several technical studies linked to large CCS projects1. Although constructability and operational challenges have been identified in previous IEAGHG reports, some aspects were unique due to the locations where the large CCS projects were implemented. These included the status of the initial facilities and other techno-economic and financial aspects of the specific CCUS projects. IEAGHG identified the need to provide a guide on constructability and operation for new CCS users. The objective of this study is to collect information from CCS projects to support the decisions during the transition from the planning to the execution phase. This study analysed a complete list of large CCUS projects from which relevant experience could be extracted. The projects were divided into three categories: operating projects; under construction or at advanced development; and cancelled projects. Based on the analysed projects, this study has delivered an assessment of potential key areas for success, and a decision tool guide for future projects

Technical Report

Sustainability in Petrochemicals

  • 1 February 2019
  • Capture
  • Industry Insights

This report investigates a unique combination of these industry drivers on the historic, current and future status of the petrochemical industry to gain insight into the sustainability of petrochemicals. Three categories of petrochemicals are subject to analysis, namely methanol, olefins and ammonia/urea. For each of these petrochemicals, the following series of studies are formed and analysed in aggregate to gain insight in to the sustainability prospects of the industry:<!– wp:acf/columns {"name":"acf/columns","data":{"padding_top":"1","_padding_top":"field_columns_fields_padding_top","padding_bottom":"1","_padding_bottom":"field_columns_fields_padding_bottom","margin_top":"0","_margin_top":"field_columns_fields_margin_top","margin_bottom":"0","_margin_bottom":"field_columns_fields_margin_bottom"},"mode":"preview"} –> <!– wp:acf/column-content {"name":"acf/column-content","mode":"preview"} –> <!– wp:list –><ul><!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>An assessment of the historic and current status of market trade, including trends in end-uses, feedstocks, demand, production and international trade. Demand projections for each chemical are made based on collected data.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>Process engineering characterisation of the current and low carbon alternative routes and feedstocks to produce the key petrochemical productions.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>Environmental life cycle assessment of the various feedstocks and production methods for each petrochemical and a contribution analysis of the key environmental impacts.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>Market projection of petrochemical production and technology mixes for a key region China, for the time period 2010 – 2050.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>A series of expert stakeholder interviews on views of how the petrochemical industry may progress in terms of demand, costs, environmental impacts and policy drivers.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –></ul><!– /wp:list –> <!– /wp:acf/column-content –> <!– /wp:acf/columns –>

Technical Report

The CCS Project at Air Products’ Port Arthur Hydrogen Production Facility

  • 1 December 2018
  • Industry Insights

In April 2013, the first commercial-scale, steam methane reformer hydrogen production facility incorporating vacuum-swing adsorption carbon capture gas separation technology began full-scale operation at Air Products’ facilities located on the site of the Valero Port Arthur Refinery in Texas, USA. This report summarizes the experience of Air Products and its partners that will provide valuable insights to other petroleum refining and petrochemical industrial facilities that wish to reduce their lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions through CCUS.

Technical Report

Enabling CCS Clusters

  • 1 February 2018
  • Industry Insights

It is widely considered that deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for clusters of energy intensive industries (EIIs) will become vital for meeting long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, and is a cost effective way for doing so, according to organisations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In addition, it will be important to develop the related finance mechanism quickly to prevent carbon leakage, i.e. businesses transferring operations to places with less stringent GHG emission standards. Recent evidence highlights there might be different needs and challenges in deployment of industrial clusters, compared to those involving power generation. IEAGHG’s Technical Report 2015/03 “Carbon capture and storage cluster projects: review and future opportunities” reviews 12 CCS cluster projects and finds that the most successful clusters are currently based on CO₂-EOR in North America. This is to be expected as EOR provides a commercial benefit to investors in such activities.Further requirements for ICCS clusters include: generating confidence for per-investment in CCS infrastructure, new methods to attract international investment and systematic development of CCS cluster business plans. However, more information is necessary regarding the transferability of conclusions for CCS clusters based on power generation incentives, such as a UK Contract for Difference (CfD), to those involving multiple industry sectors, and especially EIIs.This study examines the economic and commercial arrangements needed to enable the global deployment of industrial CCS clusters. Over a period of eight months, with significant input from stakeholders from industry, government and the investment community, the project has identified the key enablers to unlock private investment in ICCS and developed four business models, which are expected to work in various regions around the world including North America, Europe, Australia and China.

Technical Review

Gas Supply Chain Emissions

  • 1 October 2017
  • Industry Insights

This technical review has been undertaken with the aim of providing a summary of the current status of research into greenhouse gas emissions in the natural gas supply chain. Although 90% or more of the CO<sub>2</sub> produced at gas fired power plants can be captured, emissions from the supply chain may reduce the near-zero-emission image of gas as an energy source. Emissions are predominantly from two sources: <ol> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>Methane emissions during production and also fugitive emissions during transport.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> <!– wp:list-item –><!– wp:list-item –><li>CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from gas production installations, gas purification plants, pipeline compressors, LNG liquefaction plants, ships and receiving terminals.</li><!– /wp:list-item –><!– /wp:list-item –> </ol>

Our most recent publications

Our authoritative, peer-reviewed publications cover topics that include carbon capture, transport, storage, monitoring, regulation, and more.

View All Publications
Technical Review

Insurance Coverage for CO₂ Storage Projects

  • 16 August 2024
  • Industry Insights
  • Storage

This report is a focused review of recent developments regarding insurance coverage for carbon dioxide (CO₂) geological storage projects. It seeks to address the following: what companies are offering or planning to offer insurance to CO₂ storage projects, what is the scope and duration of the coverage offered, and does coverage extend to the transportation of CO₂ to the project site? This work and report was prepared by Franz Hiebert.

Technical Review

CO₂ Storage Site Catalogue

  • 8 August 2024
  • Storage

This Technical Review provides an overview of 22 CO₂ storage sites from around the world. These include CO₂-EOR, commercial scale storage sites and a number of pilot and demonstration storage sites in both depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and saline reservoirs. Its primary aim is to provide a convenient source of collated information with a specific focus on technical information that are in the public domain.

Technical Report

Power CCS: Potential for cost reductions and improvements

  • 5 August 2024
  • Capture
  • Costs of CCUS

CCS, in the context of power CCS technologies, will be an essential component of the portfolio of technologies required to reach net-zero emissions in the power sector. This study explores the potential to reduce the cost and accelerate the uptake of power CCS technologies.

Get the latest CCS news and insights

Get essential news and updates from the CCS sector and the IEAGHG by email.

Can’t find what you are looking for?

Whatever you would like to know, our dedicated team of experts is here to help you. Just drop us an email and we will get back to you as soon as we can.

Contact Us Now