Estimating the Future Trends in the Cost of CO2 Capture Technologies

Publication Overview

The IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEA GHG) has carried out studies to assess the performance and costs of various plants with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). These assessments have mostly been based on current technology and component cost data. This approach has the advantage of avoiding subjective judgements of what may or may not happen in the future. The disadvantage is that it does not take into account the potential for future improvements which could affect the long-term competitiveness of a technology.Reductions in the costs of technologies resulting from learning-by-doing and other factors have been systematically observed over many decades. Major factors contributing to cost reductions include, but are not limited to, improvements in technology design, materials, product standardisation, system integration or optimisation, economies of scale and reductions in input prices. This study analyses cost reductions that have been achieved for a range of process technologies and uses that information to predict possible future trends in the costs of power plants with CO2 capture.

Publication Summary

Major factors which contribute to process technology cost reductions include, but are not limited to, improvements in technology design, materials, product standardisation, system integration or optimisation, economies of scale and reductions in input prices.

Analysis of various process technologies indicates that in most cases capital costs have reduced by 10-15% for each doubling of installed capacity. The corresponding reduction in operating and maintenance costs is 5-30%.

Based on learning rate data for analogous process technologies, the cost of electricity from power plants with CO2 capture is predicted to reduce by 10-18% after 100GWe of capacity has been installed.

Much of the cost of a power plant with CO2 capture is for equipment which is already widely used, such as pulverised coal boilers and gas turbine combined cycles. Reductions in the incremental costs of CO2 capture are predicted to be 13-40%, i.e. greater than the reductions in the overall cost of electricity

IGCC with CO2 capture is estimated to have a higher overall cost reduction from learning than other coal-based power technologies because of greater cost reductions in the core power generation sections of the plant. However, the reduction in the incremental cost of capture in IGCC is lower than for plants with post combustion capture.